The Bubble will Burst!!

After having been dosed with a modest and articulate mid-term Monetary Policy by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe everyone was very much convinced and hopeful that the mid-term Fiscal Policy which was to be delivered on a later date was to provide the same impetus and steer the economy in the right direction.  The Fiscal policy consists of two tools- government spending and taxation, which have the potential of galvanizing the economic growth or simply warrant a death sentence to the economy. With all due fairness the not so mid-term (it came almost two months past mid-year) delivered last week is the epitome of failure in its highest regard.

Every Zimbabwean is in agreement and can concur to the sorry state of the economy but that has not inspired a solution based Fiscal policy. Most of the measures spelt in the mid-term budget antagonize any efforts to drive economic growth let alone efficiency. Most of the measures are so detrimental to the economy and will rapidly accumulate into a bubble of hot air.  As the prices of real estate started to spiral out control in the United States, one Democrat congressman, Charles Schumer, asked, “…will there be soft landing or will the bubble burst?” This is a question which aptly confronts our economy today in light of contractionary fiscal measures instituted recently.

                                                                         

To begin with, the central government is facing an ever shrinking revenue base which has even prompted the tax collector to go after the informal sector. Instead of looking at the fundamental causes of the shrinking revenue base our policy makers have adopted an ignorant approach where they seek to devise all ways to spur revenue. Central to this approach is the review of duty upwards on certain imports and some services such as communication (airtime to be precise). One then wonders if such actions will pull the country out of the doldrums and the answer to the question is an undisputable “no”.These measures which have been suggested or already put into effect are not only catastrophic but deplorable in the strongest terms. They don’t work in the short term and neither do they succeed in the medium to long term. Income levels in the country are so low to an extent that any shift of policy towards a cautionary contractionary position will hurt incomes furthermore and the repo effect translates into low consumption spending which in turn stifles production or imports if there be. Imagine the impact of duty on petrol and diesel! Transport costs are likely to shoot and the contagion effect is felt in every sector, be it agriculture, industry or mining.

Other measures such as increasing rentals on government properties and duty on mobile handsets are not sustainable at all. No meaningful revenue can be realised from such actions.Whilst some might argue that a contractionary fiscal policy is inevitable in these current times one is also motivated to question government sincerity especially looking at its expenditure levels. Recently the government bought a fleet of top of the range vehicles for ministers and Parliamentarians. Fourteen years since the land reform the issue of inputs and subsidies on agricultural products dominate fiscal debate where much funds are allocated. Is the government not supposed to do away with such expenditure and divert the funds to productive endeavours rather than review duty and tax every time fiscal space is small?   Instead of dealing with the underlying causes to the problem, our policy makers continue to fight a losing battle. It is clear to everyone that the real challenge confronting Zimbabwe’s economy is liquidity. The way to deal with this problem has confused many such that some have thought mortgaging resources for cash is the best way. Some propose that we revert to the Zimbabwean dollar and some think a sovereign nation like China can just bail out Zimbabwe with cash. After all the Chinese are risk averse just like the Americans or the British for that matter.

The reason liquidity is a challenge is derived from a non-productive agricultural, mining, services and industrial sectors.The mid-term fiscal policy should have addressed challenges bedevilling these sectors whilst at the same time instituting catalysts which can drive growth. Most companies in Zimbabwe are operating below capacity and there is no justification for an additional burden in the form of high energy (petrol and diesel) prices driven by a review of duty. Instead there is need for the central planners or government to relax the cost of doing business in the country and attract capital from outside. The indigenisation policy is a hindrance in its entirety to the attraction of meaningful capital which can drive sustainable economic growth and the consequences of such adverse legislation should have been realised, reviewed and corrected by now.

John Mangudya, the Reserve Bank governor, is very correct when he says that the economic problems we are facing as a country are not insurmountable. Our problems are not insurmountable but arise out of mischief and failure to prescribe and diagnose any economic shock we encounter.

If the policy makers persist with measures premised on tax and duty as sources of steady and reliable revenue on the back of weak industry and economic activity it shall come a time when there would be no tax base to milk from. Only that time are we going to realise that there is no soft landing. The bubble will burst! Zimbabwe is fast approaching those times of economic implosion.